Well, when this blog reached 150,000 views, on July 31st, 2007, I predicted that it would reach 200,000 on November 15th, 2007. Looks like it actually happened today, Oct 16th, 2007. That’s what, 78 days instead of 108? I was 27% off. Drat. I’m losing. If I were to assume the next 50,000 views would take 78 days, would I also be 27% off? I don’t think that’s safe either, since growth probably isn’t linear. But if it was, 27% of 78 = 58.5 days, which would mean I would reach 200,000 on Christmas Eve Eve, 12/23/2007. Of course, activity trails during the holidays, doesn’t it? Then again, since I mentioned Christmas, Christmas-related searches might come to this post and boost my numbers to compensate. (I’m thinking of Vicky’s post on Mother’s Day cards which got some sick amount of views like 12,000.) So anyway… Here’s shooting for 250,000 on 12/23/2007. After that, I am only going to announce 100,000 view intervals, since I can’t be patting myself on the back every 58.5 days. :)
October 16, 2007
JOURNAL: This blog passes 200,000 views.
Posted by ClioCJS under Clio, Computer, Journal, People[12] Comments
October 16, 2007 at 3:03 PM
Are you talking about the single-day hits for the Mother’s Day Cards? That was 8,208 views on Mother’s Day 2007. I got around 5000 the day AFTER Mother’s Day. SLACKERS!
October 18, 2007 at 7:07 PM
Wow! And you’ve been doing this since June 2004. I’ve been blogging since November 2003, and my original ideonexus never broke 30,000.
Congratulations! Keep up the great work!
October 18, 2007 at 7:26 PM
random factoid: I only blogged 59 times my first year, 25% of it during 1 month.
also: there is at least one individual page on my acm.vt.edu webpage that has over a million hits :)
a lot of it is related to the interlinking of my many sites, as well as being linked to by a lot of people early on (1990s) due to my voice actor database..
November 13, 2007 at 4:00 AM
[…] doesn’t drive the most traffic in the world. In fact, it’s pretty sad in comparison to some of my friends, but I write, not because I enjoy it, but because I have to write. It’s in my blood, it […]
December 18, 2007 at 11:51 AM
My math is pretty solid. I’m at 247.8K now, and will likely hit 300,000 within 36 hours of my prediction made on October 16th. I’m very impressed with myself right now :)
December 21, 2007 at 9:50 AM
Wait. Right now, it seems like my math was 2 days off. Ugh.
December 21, 2007 at 9:51 AM
27% of 78 is NOT 58.5 like I claimed. I meant “take 27% from 78”. But 78-(.27*78) = 56.94, or 57, not 58.5. In which case, I think I actually DID predict with 6-12 hours when I would hit 250,000. I just fucked up the math.
Ugh. too sick to do math.
December 21, 2007 at 9:54 AM
78-((1-(78/108))*78) = 56.3 instead of 58.5. Difference of 2.2. So, my prediction was SPOT FUCKING ON, but my math was flawed.
Or maybe i’m too sick to think straight, and am somehow making my math match the answer I want.
December 21, 2007 at 9:57 AM
Apparently I can’t add days either. 10/16/2007 – 12/23/200 = 68 days, not 56.3.
Okay. I declare this whole post bullshit.
GRUMBLE
December 21, 2007 at 9:57 AM
So it took 66 instead of 78 days.
December 21, 2007 at 10:00 AM
[…] Clint, Computer, Journal, People, Pointlessness Time to play the predicting game again. I predicted the last 50,000 hits within 48 hrs, a full 2 months early — but I did so accidentally using messed up math and calendar […]
December 21, 2007 at 11:21 AM
You’re talking to yourself! :)